Were you star-struck when you met Bob?
M.A: I expected to be! But Bob is one of the most accessible people I know. You wouldn’t necessarily expect him to be—You would think that someone who has accomplished so much would have his head in the clouds and be difficult to communicate with. During our first meeting, Bob showed me his idea for an ad and asked what I thought. I remember the ad. It was an advertisement for Elliott Wave Principle, his first book, which had sold tens of thousands of copies and was was already legendary. Bob’s ad had some provocative text and showed how many people had bought the book. I suggested we put the number sold in a graphic that looked like a counter and that we show the last digit halfway between two numbers, like it was flipping to the next one. Well, Bob lit up, excited that I had a simple little idea to add to his own. This is how he is with everyone, whatever your station in life. I have seen him take time to engage in the same fashion with managers of hedge funds and government leaders and the people who clean our offices. He is a genuine, caring person, and a very easy and natural communicator.
Bob is also a brilliant guy.
M.A: Yes, he is. People know him mostly for his theoretical and markets work. He is also quite the renassance man and has good ideas about disparate topics. I joke with him that if he ever needs a job, I’ll hire him at the Institute.
Can you tell us anything that most people don’t know about him?
M.A: He has written several articles about the Shakespeare authorship controversy. His first one was published back in 2002.
I was actually aware of that! OK, back to socionomics. Please tell us about the Social Mood Summit.
M.A: This year we hold our second annual social mood summit in Atlanta in April. In both of our conferences we have had academics and practioners speak. This year Bob presents a paper he co-authored with three colleagues that demonstrates that social mood has, through history, regulated how incumbent U.S. presidents fare in their relection bids. The paper has gotten a lot of press recently. Several other academics will present mood-related work as well. And this year we have a number of presenters who will explain how they use mood assessment in the financial markets.
Studies by Johan Bollen and Huina Mao show Twitter as a measurement of social mood. What do you think of the work?
M.A: We are very excited about it. In fact Dr. Bollen, Ms. Mao and several other leaders in text analytics spoke at the summit in 2011 and will do so again this year.
Researchers in their field may ultimately find a sociometer that registers social mood even faster and more precisely than does the stock market. We are not there yet, but one day we may be.
Why does it happen that socionomics faces the disapproval of a lot of financial experts, bankers and economists? Yet these experts are unable to offer a viable method for forecasting economic and financial crises. Will they ever be able to see the truth?
M.A: Socionomics is not complex, but it is so counter-intuitive that Dr. Wayne Parker, in reviewing economic and financial literature, found no earlier theory incorporating the idea of socionomic causality. We live in a physical world of external causes, and accepting the possibility of endogenous causality can be difficult, even when it involves entities with their own minds. Skepticism is also natural among those who have a vested interest in mantaining the status quo. But against the odds, the socionomics model is making inroads.
What should we expect from the Socionomics Institute in the next year? What areas have you turned your attention to?
M.A: We are currently conducting a study that may demonstrate statistically that financial markets are not random but rather exhibit patterns. Our statistician has begun to dig into our “to do” list. And we are always cooking up interesting topics in The Socionomist.
Can you suggest some resources for people who want to learn more?
M.A: Our main website is the best place to learn about socionomics: http://www.socionomics.net. Our summit website is http://www.socionomicssummit.com, and you can find a list of Bob’s articles at http://www.robertprechter.com. You can download the Elections paper at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1987160.
Thank you for your attention and time. What would you like to say to the followers of Elliott waves and socionomics in Bulgaria?
M.A: People in your country have experienced how quickly social mood can change and what the implications can be for citizens. I hope that as you embrace the socionomic perspective, it will help you prepare yourselves, your loved ones and your neighbors for whatever lies ahead. And thanks so much for your knowledge and courtesy!
Photo: Socionomics Institute
Comments
Post a Comment