Mark, let us start from the beginning. Some of our readers are hearing for the first time about socionomics and social mood. Would you explain the difference between these two?
M.A: Social mood prompts and regulates social actions. Socionomics is the study of that relationship.
You are the Director of the Socionomics Institute. What does the Institute’s work consist of?
M.A: Mostly it falls into two big categories: We research social mood and its impact on the world, and we communicate socionomics to people in the most engaging way we can.
Those seem like two pretty big objectives.
M.A: Fortunately, we have a great team. Four people focus on writing and producing our monthly publication, The Socionomist. That is a difficult job, because the publication looks to break new ground, and whenever you do something new, it is challenging. But it is also very exciting. Also, several of our employees work on what we call the academic side: conducting research, writing papers and liaising with outside academics. Matt Lampert heads up that effort; he is also our Reasearch Fellow at the University of Cambridge. We have an on-staff statistician who helps design our statistical studies, and several other folks work on communications, our website, that sort of thing. It is hard for me to believe that we are up to 12 staff members now.
For most beginners in the markets, it is difficult to find a way in this field. Every day they listen to speeches made by politicians, economists and financiers. Where can they find security?
M.A: Let’s start with politicians. The most important thing to understand is that social mood has far more influence over the broad sweep of history than do our leaders or their policies. In fact, our studies indicate that waves of social mood control the kinds of leaders that society chooses at different times. So in this manner, mood controls leaders, not the other way around. Leaders can do some good things, of course, but they cannot control waves of social mood. The waves are inexorable. They are going to exist within society regardless of any attempt to control them. As for economists, most of their indicators lag social mood by months, so their opinions are a caboose on the train pulled along by social mood.
So if they shouldn’t listen to others, to whom should they listen?
M.A: If you want to find security in the markets and in other areas of life, the most important thing you can do is adopt a valid understanding of what causes events. Understanding social-mood causality helps you step back a bit so you are not always struggling to understand how this event or that event will impact this other event over here. You can anticipate bad times when others are complacent, and you can anticipate good times when others are afraid.
Socionomics gives you that understanding?
M.A: Absolutely. People tell us all the time that because of socionomics, they now read the newspaper differently. They watch the news differently. They understand why certain behaviors become popular while others fall out of favor. They have a feel for what’s truly behind events in the markets and in the world. They know that if they can figure out where mood is most likely heading, they can then prepare for the kinds of events that are likely coming their way. Socionomics grounds you. It is a hopeful study, because it helps you anticipate the future.
Can you tell us something about yourself? When did your interest in socionomics first start?
M.A: Bob Prechter kind of burst onto my radar when he advised going to cash the day before the two-week crash in 1987. I was a financial writer, and when the crash actually occured, I took note. About ten years later, in 1996, some friends at Elliott Wave International mentioned that the company was looking for a marketing director. I interviewed and was fortunate to get the job. That was my first of several roles in the organization, including my current position with the Institute.
Photo: Socionomics Institute
Comments
Post a Comment