Crisis in the Bulgarian women’s basketball? Elliott wave explains.




Sport is a social phenomenon. Millions or maybe billions of people observe with interest the sporting events. This industry is one of the most profitable in the world. On the different continents rule different sport lords. In Europe the most popular sport is football.

From Ireland to Russia- almost everybody watches this game. During the cold war in Europe, one of the most popular methods of Soviet republics to oppose the West, was sport. European and World sports championships were a chance for these countries to show that the Eastern system is not so bad.

In Bulgaria, the second most popular sport is basketball. It would not be an exaggeration to say that this sport has a long tradition in our country - especially women’s basketball. To show the application of wave theory, I paid specific attention to this sport. So I will try to answer the question - can we find an Elliot wave model in a collective game. For that reason will try to analyze the Bulgarian women’s national team's performance at European championships.

First European Championship was held in 1938 immediately before the second world war, in Rome(Italy). And here are the top three over the years:

1938 Rome (ITA)         Italy /Lithuania /Poland
1950 Budapest (HUN) Soviet Union/Hungary/Czechoslovakia
1952 Moscow (URS) Soviet Union/Czechoslovakia/Hungary
1954 Belgrade (YUG) Soviet Union/Czechoslovakia/Bulgaria
1956 Prague (TCH)         Soviet Union/Hungary/Czechoslovakia
1958 Lodz (POL)         Bulgaria/Soviet Union/Czechoslovakia
1960 Sofia (BUL)         Soviet Union/Bulgaria/Czechoslovakia
1962 Mulhouse (FRA) Solviet Union/Czechoslovakia/Bulgaria
1964 Budapest (HUN) Soviet Union/Bulgaria/Czechoslovakia
1966 Sibiu, Cluj (ROU)     Soviet Union/Czechoslovakia/German Democratic Republic
1968 Catania, (ITA)         Soviet Union/Yugoslavia/Poland
1970 Rotterdam(NED)     Soviet Union/France/ Yugoslavia
1972 Varna, (BUL)          Soviet Union/Bulgaria/Czechoslovakia
1974 Sassari (ITA)          Soviet Union/Czechoslovakia/Italy
1976 Moulins(FRA)           Soviet Union/Czechoslovakia/Bulgaria
1978 Konin (POL)             Soviet Union/Yugoslavia/Czechoslovakia
1980 Maglaj (YUG)           Soviet Union/Poland/Yugoslavia
1981 Ancona (ITA)            Soviet Union/Poland/Czechoslovakia
1983 Miskolc (HUN)         Soviet Union/Bulgaria/Hungary
1985 Vicenza, (ITA)          Soviet Union/Bulgaria/Hungary
1987 Jerez, (ESP)          Soviet Union/Yugoslavia/Hungary
1989 Varna (BUL)          Soviet Union/Czechoslovakia/Bulgaria
1991 Tel Aviv (ISR)          Soviet Union/Yugoslavia/Hungary
1993 Perugia (ITA)          Spain/France/Slovak Republic
1995 Brno (CZE)          Ukraine/Italy/Russia
1997 Pécs (HUN)          Lithuania/Slovak Republic/Germany
1999 Poznan (POL)          Poland/France/Russia
2001 Orleans(FRA)          France/Russia/Spain
2003 Pyrgos; (GRE)          Russia/Czech Republic/Spain
2005 Ankara, (TUR)          Czech Republic/Russia/Spain
2007 Chieti (ITA)          Russia/Spain/Belarus
2009 Riga (LAT)          France/Russia/Spain
2011 Bydgoszcz(POL)       Russia/ Turkey/ France

I will observe the country's presentation over the years, assuming that an excellent performance would mean to be among the top three teams:

  • 1954 in Belgrade, Bulgaria ranked third. It can also be noted as a first wave(wave 1).
  • 1956 did not bring any medals for the country, so we consider this year a correction (wave 2).
  • Between 1958 and 1964, the country was on the podium, and in 1958 even won the gold medal. For four consecutive years, Bulgaria has won 4 medals. (this would be powerful wave 3).
  • The next three years brought no medals - 1966, 1968, 1970 (also correction-wave 4).
  • Between 1972 and 1989, the country was five times among the top three teams, and the last achieved medal in the year before the collapse of the socialist ruling party in 1989. (this period can be noted as a wave 5, which will be the longest).


It seems that we have completed the wave model. We have precisely 5 waves (1,3,5 motive waves and 2,4 corrective waves). Plotted on the graph, they would appear as follows:



According to the Elliott wave principle, after the completion of the five waves in one direction, the next three waves will be in the opposite direction. This is one possible count of the presentation of the Bulgarian national basketball team. Perhaps it is not surprising that after the changes in the country in 1989, sports, particularly basketball, have not been successful. 

It has been exactly 23 years since the team won its last medal at European championships. Bulgarian women’s basketball is currently experiencing its correction and is looking forward to better years.

Many believe that the application of wave theory can only be possible in the area of the financial markets. Whenever there are people and emotions, there are specific patterns. Socionomics and a social mood are potent ways to explain human actions. Sport is only one of the possible areas of application of this theory.


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