Bulgarian government - between hope and disappointment

"Do not act like a children"

It is not easy to be prime-minister nowadays. Probably Bulgarian Boyko Borisov realizes this very  well. The poorest member of the European Union is plagued by social unrest. The global financial crisis surprised the ruling party, and the lack of reforms in key sectors led to the escalation of the tension in the Bulgarian society. And while Merkel and Sarkozy were seeking solutions to the crisis, Bulgarian prime-minister was trying to reassure the public, giving as an example the neighbouring Greece. Of course the differences between these two countries are huge. Bulgaria has a relativey stable banking system, low debit and unemployment around 10%. But is this enough for Bulgarians? It looks like the answer is NO. Now let me try to introduce you to the major events in bulgarian society during the last four months.

Katunitsa: anti-roma protests

 On september 23 in the small village of Katunitsa, located in Plovdiv municipality,  there was an ethnic conflict between Bulgarians and gypsies. The reason was the murder of a young man, who was run over by a car, driven by a gypsy. Later it became clear, that the car was owned by a Roma Baron, who keeps the village in fear. And the men who were riding in the car were his workers. The people were angry and hit the streets. For many years, the Bulgarian authorities turned a blind eyes to the many violations of the Roma family. The villagers have filed hundreds of police complaints against them but no further actions  followed. Kiril Rashkov has not paid taxes for years, has illegally built properties and one of his companies owes the state millions in taxes. The police suspected that Roma boss runs illegal drug channels as well as trafficking in women.

On the day of the above mentioned incident the people of his village set two houses and a number of expensive cars on fire. During this time the police had to protect the illegally built property. This is the first ever ethnic conflict in Bulgaria. Organized demonstration against Roma and injustice took place in major cities in the country. 

People of all ages and also members of football groups occupied the streets of Sofia, Plovdiv, Varna and Burgas. Of course the international community has frowned at this. Bulgaria was reprimanded by the US Ambassador James Warlick, the Council of Europe, UN, OSCE. All this happened one month before the presidential elections and the ruling majority was very careful about their actions. And as often happens in Bulgaria, the promises of politican were hardly ever kept.

Bulgarian State Railways-strike

Bulgarian State Railways is a public company founded in  1866 and currently the largest railway operator in the country. The number of employees is about 15 000, and in many smaller towns and villages the railroad work is the sole livelihood of the people. After the democratic changes in Bulgaria in 1989 the railroad lost its leading transport position at the expense of road transport. Railway infrastructure is difficult to maintain, there is no money for the new trains and thefts by employees are frequently reported. Railway itself receives millions of state subsidy annually to cover losses. Economists say that if the Bulgarian Railway was  a privately owned company it would have already gone bankrupt.

Bulgarian railways strike began on 23 November. The event was provoked by the government plan for layoffs. It included the layoff of about 2500 workers and closing of unprofitable lines. Of course the unions did not agree with this deal, and as a result one of the workers even went on hunger strike. Every day from 8 till 16 o’clock employees blocked the stations and prevented the normal movement of people. This led to millions in losses and inability to deal with creditors. Meanwhile the transport minister Ivaylo Moskovski managed to negotiate with Siemens a rescheduling of the payment for the new train wagons.

Farmers Protest 

If you happened to be a visitor in Sofia in that period of time, you have probably noticed the mass protests on downtown streets. On 6.12.2011 there was a farmers demonstration. Farmers hit the streets to protest against reduced subsidies for the sector. Actually the strike officially began on Monday 28.11. On Tuesday (6.12.2011) the mayor of Sofia, allowed the machines and people to enter the capital city. Farmers did not agree with the government, which cut the budget of the Ministry with 570 million leva. Protesters demanded the resignation of finance minister and prime minister. They thought that the ruling party did not keep its promises and did not support the agricultural sector. At the beginning of the protest strikers blocked major roads as well as the border with Greece. Bulgarian prime -minister Boyko Borisov said that demonstrators were arrogant, and the government and people of Bulgaria were not obliged to give more money to agromillioners. Meanwhile finance Minister Simeon Djankov said that the price of bread should be lower, because of the state subsidy and European money. Miroslav Nydenov, minister of Agriculture noted  that there was a need to support breeders through reallocation of cash.

 It is clear that these sorts of demonstrations are nothing new for the government. Like all emerging parties, GERB which came to power in 2009, was elected by the many hopes of Bulgarian citizens. The current Government received the support of 36,75% of the voters, while the ruling Socialist party received 13,29%. It was a big surprise that the Nationalist Party ATAKA received 19,76% of the votes. Therefore GERB had to do Coalition with the nationalist party. This was an unexpected move. For the first time in Bulgarian democratic history, the second most strongly supported party in the country was the nationalist party. Of course ATAKA was a staunch ally of the ruling party, and provided support and the needed votes for the passage of important laws. Volen Siderov, chairman of the Nationalist party took advantage of the protests and promoted Anti-Roma ideas in order to “wake” the Bulgarian people. Perhaps for many outside observers it is interesting to understand why the support for this party is so strong lately. Bulgaria is known for centuries as a country of various ethnicities and cultures which are actually able to live together without any problems. Like in all former socialist countries, Bulgaria has Roma population problems. These people are for the most part uneducated, rely on the social benefits, and have difficulties to integrate in the society. All this builds resentment among Bulgarian citizens, and thus Volen Siderov ideas have many supporters.

Boyko Borisov - prime-minister

Prime minister Boyko Borisov was a real hero. He graduated as a lieutenant in fire safety and spend many years as a couch of the Bulgarian national karate team. Soon after the democratic changes in the country he started a private security business, and one of his famous customers was Todor Zhivkov, the man who ruled Bulgaria for 33 years. The 90s in Bulgaria were the times of the mafia, hyperinflation and the collapse of the bank system. Like most political figures in Bulgaria, the name of Boyko Borisov is also associated with corruption and links with the mafia. Of course this is very difficult to prove.

Borisov’s real political career started in 2001 when he was elected Secretary General. He impressed European and global partners of Bulgaria with his hard work. Borisov visited many countries like USA, Great Britain, Spain, Austria, and the headquarters of Interpol.

The second important event that led him on his way to the top was his election as mayor of Sofia in 2005. In early 2006 he established GERB(Citizens  for European Development of Bulgaria). In the regular elections for local government in 2007, Boyko Borisov won and his party got the largest number of representatives in Sofia Municipal Council. Between 2001 and 2009 Boyko Borisov was one of the politicians with the highest rating in the country. He was often interviewed by the media, participated in fun shows and also won twice the award "Man of the Year” in Bulgaria. Bulgarian women have labeled him a sex symbol. That is why the victory of his party in the parliamentary elections in 2009 was not at all a surprise.

Socionomics point of view 

Between the years 2000 and 2008 Bulgaria reported 6 % annual growth. After the changes in 1989, this was the best decade in the new Bulgarian economic history. The country maintained a relatively low level of unemployment due to the multi-million investments during this period. Of course we should mention the fact, that Bulgaria joined the European Union in 2007. This was big success and recognition for the country. To be part of the European Family was a dream for many Bulgarian citizens. Now they have the opportunity to work, visit and study abroad with no additional documents needed. But EU membership does not have only advantages. It’s well known that Bulgaria could benefit from European funds, but for that, the country must carry out major reforms.

We can say that the mood in Bulgarian society during this decade was strongly positive. The economy grew annually, investments were increasing.  The Accession to the European Union is precisely due to the positive mood of the people about their future. During this period popularity of Boyko Borisov grew and peaked with his election as prime minister in 2009. But when people feel pessimistic about their future they do not believe in leaders and heroes. Maybe now is the time when we can witness this phenomenon in Bulgaria.  People on the streets indicate a change of the positive trend. My opinion is that we live in very interesting and dynamic world. Elliott wave theorists know what kind of events we can expect during the A-B-C correction. Some of them have already happened -Arab spring, anti-Roma sentiment, anti-government protests and antiglobalization. Some politicians, economists and financiers say that there is no danger for the world to come back to the years 1929-1933. Humanity is now more responsible and will not repeat the mistakes of the past. I do not believe that. Do you?