John Casti Interview (Part 1)

Ts.Yordanova: First of all I would like to say thank you for your willingness to do this interview. I am holding in my hands your book Mood Matters - From Rising Skirt Lengths to the Collapse of World Powers. How long did it take to write this book? And how long have you been studying the social mood?

John Casti: This book has a long history. I started writing it in about 2004, after thinking about the ideas for several years before that. I was lucky to have had the continuing guidance of Robert Prechter, the founding father of socionomics, who actually got me started thinking about these matters in around 2002.

Initially, the book was under contract with a different publisher than the one who finally published it. But after writing and rewriting and re-rewriting the manuscript for that publisher, the editor and I could never get onto the same page, so to speak, so the project was dropped in about 2006. I then left the book in my computer for a couple of years before reviving it in late-2008. After that, it took about one year to yet once more rewrite the book to its current form as you see it in print.

Ts.Yordanova: What kind of Science is Socionomics?

John Casti: It is a science of human social behavior, addressing the central question as to how collective mood of a population biases the social events that take place.

Ts.Yordanova:  In your book’s  Preface  you have quoted Gustave Le Bons and his book “The Crowd”. He is probably one of the first writers who acknowledged the power of the masses. Another one is Elias Canetti , who wrote “Crowds and Power”. Did they influence you when writing your book? What is your opinion about these authors?

John Casti: I have great respect for both Le Bon and Canetti. And I suppose in a certain sense you can say their ideas influenced me during the course of writing this book. But I cannot point to a specific passage or example and say, “That came from such-and-such a passage in Canetti or Le Bon.” They helped set a psychological framework for me without which I could not have written this kind of book.

Ts.Yordanova:  A lot of people are skeptical about foreseeing future events. What qualities does a person need to have in order to deal successfully with this task?

John Casti: First of all, socionomics is not about “predicting” specific events. I don’t believe that anyone, living, dead or yet to be born, can consistently and reliably do that. Rather, it is about analyzing the spectrum of possible events, and then identifying those *most likely* to be seen over a particular time frame. So as I said in the book, it’s a lot like weather forecasting---but for human social activity instead of that of nature.

In regard to the qualities you need to effectively use socionomics, I would say that by far the most important quality is an open mind. You have to be able to distance yourself as an analyst from the situations you’re studying, and see them with the eye of an observer, not a participant. 

Ts.Yordanova:  Would you please share more details about your meeting with Robert  Prechter . When did you meet and what impression did he make on you?

John Casti: I first made the acquaintance of Prechter in around 1989 when I was writing a book, Searching for Certainty, about prediction and explanation in science. I included a chapter on stock price forecasting and explanation in that book, and contacted him for background material for writing that chapter. I have been in contact with Prechter ever since, sometimes very close as when I was a consultant for his company in around 2003, other times less frequently.

My impression of Bob Prechter is that he is a true pioneer, a man who sees the world much more objectively than most and who is not afraid to put forth novel ideas about how the world really works. I don’t always agree with every single aspect of his vision. But I listen carefully to what he says as his ideas are always stimulating, even if I don’t necessarily agree with some of them.

Ts.Yordanova:  In your book you describe the various ways for understanding the social moods in certain country –   judging by the height of the buildings, by the cars,  colours and even by the clothes of the people. And   not  to forget the stock market indexes.  Which way is the most efficient one of all?

John Casti: There is no one “most efficient” or “most effective” method for measuring (not “understanding”) social mood. The stock market indexes are one good way and a way that’s easy to get data for. But there are many others. For instance, I’m doing a study right now that’s aimed at determining how the social mood in a country can give some insight into when the situation may be especially sensitive to the outbreak of civil disturbances of one sort or another. We have found that data-mining of media sources to be very helpful as a social mood meter in this case, at least as good as the local stock market. So you simply have to look at many mood meters and see which one(s) seem most helpful in a given environment for a given set of questions. 

You can find here Part 2 of the interview with John Casti